do deterrence and social-control theories predict driving after drinking 15 years after a dwi conviction?

this study investigates the utility of deterrence and social-control theories for prospective prediction of driving-while-impaired (dwi) outcomes of first-time dwi offenders.

method: the sample consisted of a subset of 544 convicted first-time dwi offenders (n = 337 females) who were interviewed 5 and 15 years after referral to a screening program in bernalillo county, new mexico. variables collected at the 5-year (initial) interview were used in structural equation models to predict past 3-months, self-reported dwi at the 15-year follow-up (follow-up) interview. these variables represented domains defined by deterrence and social-control theories of dwi behavior, with one model corresponding to deterrence theory and one to social-control theory.