• a time-varying transformer outage model for on-line operational risk assessment

    جزئیات بیشتر مقاله
    • تاریخ ارائه: 1393/01/01
    • تاریخ انتشار در تی پی بین: 1393/01/01
    • تعداد بازدید: 600
    • تعداد پرسش و پاسخ ها: 0
    • شماره تماس دبیرخانه رویداد: -
     the failure probabilities of system components may vary with changes in the operating conditions. performing a probabilistic risk assessment in real-time is challenging, since component failure probabilities are difficult to predict. accordingly, this paper introduces a delayed semi-markov process that incorporates real-time data from advanced sensors, as a means of efficiently calculating time-varying or condition-based failure probabilities. to demonstrate the feasibility of the procedure, a time-varying transformer outage model with numerical examples is presented. in the proposed technique, an analytic random model is developed to accommodate the impact of real-time dissolved gas analysis data, as well as other conditions pertaining to the failure probabilities of system components.

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