bayesian sensitivity analysis of a model of the aortic valve

understanding the mechanics of the aortic valve has been a focus of attention for many years in the biomechanics literature, with the aim of improving the longevity of prosthetic replacements. finite element models have been extensively used to investigate stresses and deformations in the valve in considerable detail. however, the effect of uncertainties in loading, material properties and model dimensions has remained uninvestigated. this paper presents a formal statistical consideration of a selected set of uncertainties on a fluid-driven finite element model of the aortic valve and examines the magnitudes of the resulting output uncertainties. furthermore, the importance of each parameter is investigated by means of a global sensitivity analysis. to reduce computational cost, a bayesian emulator-based approach is adopted whereby a gaussian process is fitted to a small set of training data and then used to infer detailed sensitivity analysis information. from the set of uncertain parameters considered, it was found that output standard deviations were as high as 44% of the mean. it was also found that the material properties of the sinus and aorta were considerably more important in determining leaflet stress than the material properties of the leaflets themselves.